Analogy models for prediction of human toxicity

By Hellberg, S. - Eriksson, L. - Jonsson, J. - Lindgren, F. - Sjostrom, M. - Wold, S.

Estimating the toxicity to humans of chemicals by testing on human subjects is not considered to be ethically acceptable, and toxicity testing on laboratory animals is also questionable. Therefore, there is a need for alternative methods that will give estimates of various aspects of human toxicity. Batteries of in vitro tests, together with physicochemical and toxicokinetic data, analysed by efficient data analytical methods, may enable analogy models to be constructed that can predict human toxicity. It may be possible to model non-specific toxicity relating to lipophilicity, or basal cytotoxicity, for a series of diverse compounds with large variation in chemical structure and physicochemical properties. However, local models for a series of similar compounds are generally expected to be more accurate, as well as being capable of modelling more-specific interactions. Analogy models for the prediction of human toxicity are discussed and exemplified with physicochemical and cytotoxicity data from the first ten chemicals in the multicenter evaluation of in vitro cytotoxicity (MEIC) project.